Wednesday, May 23, 2007

When all the waters overflow, dam it.

Greetings. I thought I might share this from one of my correspondences with knowledged friends. I should clean it up but then I don't know where I would start. Quite often the only way you can frame your thoughts is to have a person in mind to which you would like to explain what alone can not be explained. And, then, to clean up what you've said to a friend means you consider others more deserving of your carefulness while the friend would excuse the slop. So, I hope you don't mind that I treat you as a friend...

Forensic afterthought will always portend our own wisdom. Accidental occupations will always pretend our own thought. - Respin Destu

To Wit:

I hope this is not too fragmented and rambling. I won't have much opportunity to proofread for unfinished thoughts and other question marks.

This article you sent ( ) comes the closest to me of fingering "something entirely new" in Verizon's technology box.

I think this phrase is the most telling piece of information regarding Verizon's activities in fiber optics:

"Verizon is the only major telecom company building fiber all the way to customers' homes on a mass scale. The company is the first and only major communications and entertainment provider to be certified by the independent Fiber to the Home Council as providing customers with 100 percent fiber-optic service."

significant: 'the only' and '...first and only major communications and entertainment provider...100 percent fiber'

If Verizon does not have a guaranteed way of staying one step ahead of the competition for the next decade at least, they are stupid to take this kind of approach and should have been challenged far before now. Now, it's too late for the AT&T's v Verizon just as it's too late for the Microsofts v IBM in software.

Too late for Intel v IBM? I think that also as optical processing is the next real generational step for the integrated circuit industry.

If the current ability Verizon has of staying ahead of any announcements other telcos have regarding fiber optic speeds (Verizon always manages to one-up anyone else and have been doing so for the past couple years) is founded on existing technology (Lucent originally broke the 400Gbps speed mark in 1998-1999) they are complete fools as others should be able to duplicate their performance if the techniques originate from the multiplexed methods used in digital communications.

However, if they are originating the signals from something analog, they can continue to provide "faster than anyone" communications while staying within industry standards... confounding and terrifying their competition.

Why would Intel be upset by this? They are in the OC-192c business... but not like the network companies that call the shots on the standards. If Intel does not have some significant inroad to use whatever originating technology Verizon has from which Verizon can simply say "we run as fast as any digital equipment you can make" they will find themselves in an untenable situation quickly being dictated to by Verizon. There are a large slew of 'don't want that to happens' swirling around in Intel's head (IBM has faster processors, bigger processors - what will happen if IBM has the opportunity to port Verizon's speed advantages straight to processing chips and Intel has to stand in line for such?) and I would say THAT is 'our friend on a roll's primary fear and reason for attempting to derail any discussion about the fiber optic patent.

I know it seems like a silly hopeless game for someone to think that, but, I would ask, where else would you hope to hear information that might tell you what VCSY is actually doing? Magazines? I think not. Any nitwit can tell you the most significant discussions about VCSY technology occurs on Raging Bull VCSY board and any "accidental" information could render all the reactive plans of Verizon's competitions moot and obsolete.

The Cruz patent details the only way to provide 'beyond digital' performance that I know of in fiber optics as it promises the ability to move analog images through single fiber. Analog signals provide the kind of seamless well from which to draw and increasingly faster digital solution. An inherently digital start is doomed from the start.

Remember all optical signaling must be done according to industry equipment standards in place which dictate how equipment handles the light signals through the network. Current equipment is standardized as digital, thus, Verizon must deliver their signals within those standard envelopes.

I've been watching Verizon announcements ever since we've been watching FIOS and they incrementally up their 'delivered to the user' speed specs with every announcement made by their competitors (the strategy is never run faster than you have to- just faster than the other guys - that way nobody can accuse you of an unfair advantage).

400Gbps through a single fiber is not new. Lucent demonstrated the ability using multiplexing - (Verizon speaks of multiplexing wavelengths and people like tepe will use that to say the technique is digital - the resulting signal is digital but an analog basis is the only thing that can guarantee further digital advancements as you quickly reach the end at the various light wavelength border) 400Gbps in 1999 was able to transmit the entire load of the internet of its day. That can't be said today as the internet is much larger with much greater throughput. I believe 400Gbps per single fiber to the user is what Verizon is hinting at in the networx wording. If that is true, there is no reason others should not be able to do likewise and thus a real curiosity as they are apparently not able or do not see a market there.

The only way Verizon can confidently say there's a viable market there (they have to have been able to justify this "gamble" to their board of directors and various other watchdogs - apparently the Federal Gov is confident they are able as they've awarded networx work to them) is if they are confident they can ultimately bring the industry's highest digital throughputs (no matter how high digital technology can push speeds) to the final destination and that's a single fiber to the home or office. In other words, they can run the fiber to the place today and then offer faster and faster speeds as the circuitry necessary to handle faster signals becomes more compact, cheap and reliable enough to place in the home environment.

That would mean instantaneous (to humans) interchange of information across the network which is absolutely necessary to flesh out the theoretical concept of real-time web-based operating systems and the "network is the computer" foundation of distributed systems.

I believe wholeheartedly that is IBM's ultimate goal and will involve a new kind of "internet". When that will happen I do not know but we are in the last stages of the development and we're watching the implementation and roll outs now.

Very frustrating to see something so obvious to those who are studying, yet apparently invisible (hidden by industry standards among the cluster of competitors running the race with Verizon inexorably in front) to those who can't understand the extreme difficulty in wringing increases in speed out of an already mature digital technology.

Again, it can't be done with digital at this time. It can only be done with digital segmentation of seamless analog signals.

I am instinctively certain we are watching Verizon tweak the rest of the industry's collective noses and giving them a chance to catch up and play to avoid anti-trust issues. But, I do not know how to prove it without more specific language.

The players can not catch up.

Tell your wife you're right about what... just not able to say when. The time for revealing you're right simply has not come yet. Sorry you are going through the financial gauntlet trying to hold on to VCSY shares. I hope things will be revealed shortly for you.

Better yet, let me tell her:
Dear xxxx wife. Sorry all this is so arcane and difficult to convey. He knows what he's doing. It just looks like he doesn't. He sees what only a handful of people know (the industry is not aware at the kind of levels that allow "personnel" to tell the whole picture or story or even cohesive fragments of the story - only corporate officers and architects will know what their actual technological basis is in situations like this) and it is consistent with all other indications throughout the communications industry. I am sorry it is taking so long relative to your financial needs at home, but, you must realize what a significant opportunity this presents to someone desiring to secure the most lucrative future for a family. Sorry for the intrusion and I hope you will be able to have a bit more patience as the pressure on Microsoft and other players 'not in the loop' is obvious and painful.

yers truly, portuno

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