Yes indeed if Microsoft doesn't get its act together very quickly. Precisely.
Please read this first
THEN look at the date (try not to look at the date until after you've read it).
Now, after Vista, read these:
This is why Microsoft now sheepishly admits the "next" operating system (oh, yeah the NEXT one, then... ok. Now we see. 2009 maybe?) will have to be "entirely different" from previous operating systems.
Wahhoooo. Very liberating because "programming" escapes the bounds of "this is what we have to use" to allow "this is what we have so let's use it". Big difference.